Worth Reading – More than half of all Polymarket “long shot” bets on military action pay off
This is all going to wind up being a giant scam, isn’t it?
Analysis by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, a non-profit research and advocacy group, found that long-shot bets—defined as wagers of $2,500 or more at odds of 35 percent or less—on the platform had an average win rate of around 52 percent in markets on military and defense actions.
That compares with a win rate of 25 percent across all politics-focused markets and just 14 percent for all markets on the platform as a whole.
The research is likely to add to growing concerns among regulators and lawmakers about insiders placing bets on the timing and success of military actions, amid fears that this could reveal classified information in advance.
How the hell did we create a situation where people who control government actions can bet on them? It’s like saying I’ll drink coffee and then collecting money for it. These online sites are ripe for corruption, but I feel more and more like that’s the entire point.
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